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portada Adversarial Risk Analysis
Type
Physical Book
Author
Publisher
Year
2015
Language
English
Pages
224
Format
Hardcover
Dimensions
23.6 x 15.5 x 1.8 cm
Weight
0.48 kg.
ISBN13
9781498712392
Categories

Adversarial Risk Analysis

David Ríos Insua (Author) · David L. Banks (Author) · Jesus M. Rios Aliaga (Author) · CRC Press · Hardcover

Adversarial Risk Analysis - Banks, David L. ; Aliaga, Jesus M. Rios ; Rios Insua, David

New Book Imported to New Zealand
Delivery: 04 Aug - 11 Aug Shipping: 4 to 5 business days.
NZ$ 284.70
Import costs and 15% GST included in the price ✅
NZ$ 284.70

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Synopsis "Adversarial Risk Analysis"

Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations.Focuses on the recent subfield of decision analysis, ARA Compares ideas from decision theory and game theoryUses multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) throughout to help readers visualize complex information structuresApplies the ARA approach to simultaneous games, auctions, sequential games, and defend-attack gamesContains an extended case study based on a real application in railway security, which provides a blueprint for how to perform ARA in similar security situations Includes exercises at the end of most chapters, with selected solutions at the back of the bookThe book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent and enables analysts to maximize their expected utilities.

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